Analisis Volatilitas dan Transmisi Harga Beras di Kabupaten Deli Serdang

Abstract

Deli Serdang is the largest rice production center in North Sumatra Province. High price fluctuations for rice cause large marketing margins and lower prices received by farmers. One of the risks and uncertainties faced by farmers is price risk. The price of rice received by farmers tends to fluctuate from time to time. Prices of several goods, especially agricultural products, show fluctuations from season to season. Price instability can be caused by supply fluctuations and demand instability. The research aims to analyze how rice price volatility and rice price transmission patterns occur from the producer and consumer levels in Deli Serdang district. The analytical models used in the research are Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) to see the level of price volatility and the Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) to see price transmission. The data used is secondary data in the form of time series data for 2020-2023. The research results show that the level of rice price volatility in the producer market is low volatility, the level of volatility in the consumer market is high volatility and the price transmission that occurs between the producer market and the consumer market is symmetrical.