Skenario Model Pelestarian Habitat Orangutan Tapanuli di Kabupaten Tapanuli Tengah

Abstract

This research aims to develop a Scenario Model for the Conservation of the Tapanuli Orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis) habitat in the Tapanuli Tengah region using the DPSIR (Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response) framework. The Model simulation utilizes System Dynamics, and the best scenario is determined using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Four scenarios were compared in this study: Business As Usual (BAU), threat scenario, policy optimization scenario, and welfare and rehabilitation scenario. The evaluation was conducted based on five main criteria: settlements (23,83%), agriculture (31,63%), illegal logging (2,76%), forest cover change (14,83%), and forest cover (26,94%). The AHP results indicated that the policy optimization scenario had the highest priority score at 37,61% followed by the welfare and rehabilitation scenario at 36,37%. The threat and BAU scenarios scored lower, at 11,84% and 14,18%, respectively. These findings suggest that the policy optimization scenario, involving government intervention through strict regulations in forest management and habitat protection, is the best alternative for the conservation of the Tapanuli orangutan. The welfare and rehabilitation scenario, which integrates ecosystem rehabilitation with community welfare programs, also presents an effective option. This study concludes that policy optimization, when integrated with the welfare of local communities, is the most effective approach to protecting the habitat and population of the Tapanuli orangutan.