Model Analisis dan Strategi Mitigasi Risiko Keuangan dalam Pengambilan Keputusan Kelayakan Investasi Pembangunan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (PLTA) di Wilayah Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Success in the implementation of a construction project is seen through the accuracy in maintaining the triple constraints: cost, quality, and time. Analyzing project risk is crucial for long-term investment and project development success. It is necessary to have an analysis model for mitigating the risk due to the complexity of constructing a generator project, particularly the 45 MW PLTA (water-powered electric generator) in North Sumatra province. There is the incidence of risk that can impede its construction in the investment financial risk. The following are the risks that will be identified after measurement and analysis are done. It is found that the risk priority is the one which has to be managed first such as the management of project expenses, management of cash and flow, specification of contract detail, and difficulty in supplying the materials. These risks are managed by interpreting them and implementing risk mitigation strategies to prevent financial loss during construction. The analysis on risk mitigation shows that project expense management is the top priority, followed by cash flow management, contract detail specification, and difficulty in supplying the materials. The implementation of the research findings and risk mitigation priorities requires identifying critical processes and adopting approaches to provide alternative controls for these processes. For example, if the total cost approach is critical, then procuring PLTA materials becomes a critical process. An explorative approach, such as contracting with material suppliers to ensure timely delivery of ordered materials (with or without down payment), can be delivered according to the project schedule. Other approaches can be used for other identified critical processes. We can use the result of risk mitigation priority according to risk incidence. The mitigation implementation can be done flexibly according to further identification.