Analisis Determinan Pertumbuhan Jumlah Investasi Asuransi Syariah di Indonesia: Pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of Inflation (INF), Industrial Production Index (IPI), BI Rate (BIRATE), Exchange Rate (ER), and Investment Yield (RET) both partially and simultaneously on the total investment in Sharia insurance in Indonesia. This research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data in the form of monthly time series data, covering the period from January 2018 to April 2023, comprising a total of 64 observations. The analysis is conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, with data sourced from the Financial Services Authority (OJK), Bank Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), and the Ministry of Trade. The results indicate that in the short term, the Exchange Rate variable has a significant negative effect on the total investment in Sharia insurance, while Investment Yield have a significant positive effect. In the long term, Inflation, Industrial Production Index, Exchange Rate, and BI Rate do not have a significant impact; however, Investment Yield continue to have a significant positive effect. These findings suggest that the stability of investment returns is a key indicator in driving the growth of total investment in Sharia insurance, while fluctuations in the exchange rate affect short-term investment interest. The implications of this study emphasize the importance of maintaining the stability of investment returns to enhance public trust in Sharia insurance products. Additionally, the government and industry players need to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations to support the sustainability of the Sharia insurance sector in Indonesia.