Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Angkatan Kerja di Kabupaten Toba Samosir Pada Tahun 2021-2022

Abstract

The workforce is a population aged 15 to 65 years who are currently working or looking for work. The workforce in Toba Samosir Regency has increased almost every year. The data in this study are secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra which is labor force data from 2009-2019. Forecasting in this study uses the Double Exponential Smoothing Brown method. The purpose of this study is to obtain the α parameter and the form of the forecasting equation used to predict the number of workforce in Toba Samosir Regency in 2021-2022 by using a measure of the accuracy of the forecasting results Mean Absolute Percentage Error in the Double Exponential Smoothing Brown method. The best α parameter used to predict the number of labor force in this study is α = 0,60 with the results of forecasting in 2021 is 107.328 workforce and in 2022 with 110.277 workforce.