Daya Saing Ekspor Kopi dari Negara Penghasil Ke Negara Tujuan Ekspor

Abstract

Coffee is a leading commodity with an export value of USD 1.14 billion with an export volume of 433,780 tons in 2022. The highest destination for Indonesian coffee exports is the United States with a value of USD 268.55 million, followed by Japan with a value of USD 59.09 million. The United States and Japan are the largest coffee importing countries in the world. Research objectives: 1) To identify the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee in the global market, 2) To identify what factors influence the volume of Indonesian coffee exports in export destination countries, 3) To identify demand and competition for Indonesian coffee in the global market. The analytical model used in this research is Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantage (DRCA) to see the dynamics of Indonesian coffee export performance in the global market, then the Gravity Model to see what factors influence the volume of Indonesian coffee exports in export destination countries and the Gravity Model and Model Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) to see the elasticity of demand and competition for Indonesian coffee in the global market. The data used is secondary data in the form of the period 2003-2022. The results of the DRCA research method show that the four coffee exporting countries have dynamic export competition performance that tends to decline. Indonesia's coffee export performance for the five periods 2003-2022 was in the positions of Leading retreat, Langging retreat, Lost Opportunity, Rising star and Falling Star. These results indicate a decline in the share of coffee exports and the share of total exports of Indonesian products in the international market. Based on the results of the common effect model estimation, Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPI) and the exchange rate have a negative but significant effect on Indonesian coffee exports. Meanwhile, the variables Gross Domestic Product per capita importers (GDPIM) and trade costs have a positive and significant influence on the volume of Indonesian coffee exports. However, the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) has a positive but not significant effect on Indonesian coffee exports. The results of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) analysis show that Indonesian coffee in the United States and Japan markets is in fourth position after Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. The price elasticity of Indonesian, Brazilian and Vietnamese coffee is inelastic, while Colombia's is elastic. Meanwhile, in the Japanese market, the price elasticity of Brazilian and Colombian coffee is inelastic, while that of Vietnam and Indonesia is elastic. Then the cross price elasticity of Indonesia and Brazil is positive and there is a substitution relationship. Meanwhile, the cross price elasticity of Indonesia and Vietnam shows a complementary relationship. For the Japanese market, the cross price elasticity between Indonesia and Brazil is positive and shows a substitution relationship and is inelastic. Meanwhile, Indonesia and Vietnam have negative values indicating a complementary relationship and are elastic. The expenditure elasticity of Indonesian coffee exports in the United States market is 0.644, indicating that Indonesian coffee is a normal good and is inelastic. Meanwhile, the elasticity of expenditure on Indonesian coffee exports in the Japanese market is 1.018, indicating that Indonesian coffee is a superior product and is elastic.