Pengaruh Inflasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan Leverage Terhadap Perubahan Laba: Peran Moderasi Tingkat Suku Bunga pada Kantor Regional dan Cabang PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of inflation, economic growth, and leverage on profit changes, as well as explore the moderating role of interest rates. The research object is PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk., specifically at its regional and branch offices in North Sumatra Province. The background of this study is based on the fluctuation of BRI's net profit during the 2018-2023 period, which reflects dynamics caused by changes in inflation, economic growth, and credit interest rates.

This research employs signaling theory to explain how changes in macroeconomic variables can affect corporate profits and how interest rates moderate these relationships. The data indicates that national and regional inflation, regional gross domestic product (RGDP) growth, and leverage play an essential role in determining BRI's financial performance.

The findings reveal that inflation negatively affects profit changes, while economic growth does not have a significant impact. On the other hand, leverage positively influences profit changes. Furthermore, interest rates are found to weaken the effect of inflation on profit changes, do not moderate the influence of economic growth on profit changes, but strengthen the effect of leverage on profit changes.

These findings highlight the importance of managing macroeconomic variables and leverage by BRI to optimize profits and demonstrate that an effective interest rate policy can serve as a strategic tool in mitigating the impact of inflation and enhancing the benefits of leverage on corporate profits. This study is expected to contribute to the development of banking policies and financial management in the banking sector, particularly in the North Sumatra region.