Model Estimasi Biaya Konseptual Konstruksi Bangunan Gedung dengan Menggunakan Metode Parametrik (Studi Kasus: Bangunan di Kota Medan dan Sekitarnya)

Abstract

A building is a structure that is built permanently and it’s function is to accommodate the human activities. Building construction begins with initiation stage, in the form of a conception stage based on owner’s projections of the building’s utilization. This conception stage requires a feasibility study to be used as a design development tool or as a cost control tool in the next stage. However, the budget projection in this initial estimate has many limits, one of which is the availability of very little project data, so that the prediction results are usually not very accurate. This study aims to create a model for estimating the total cost of the project (Y) based on the physical parameters of the building available at the initiation stage such as typical floor area (XI) and also the number of floors (X2). This study uses seven building project data that are normalized to the city of Medan and financial year (2024) by considering the construction cost index and the currency inflation rate. The result is a multiple linear regression model, and also a multiple quadratic non-linear regression model. Based on the results obtained through SPSS data analysis, it was found that the multiple linear regression model using two variables has better quality for predicting total costs, with the equation Y= -1,998,706,300 + 5,576,176.4 (X1) + 1,516,269,888 (X2) ± This equation has an R square value of 0.983 so that it can be stated as quite accurate, with a model error percentage of 11 % based on the MAPE value. This model can be used to predict buildings within the range of 1 to 3 floors, and the typical floor area of 167.7 to 1172.3 square meters.