Analisis Peramalan Harga Cabai Merah dan Bawang Merah di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Red chili and shallots are two essential horticultural commodities in Indonesia, particularly in North Sumatra. Besides being staple ingredients in various dishes, both commodities significantly impact the regional economy. This study aims to analyze price forecasting for red chili and shallots in North Sumatra for the future. The research location selected purposively. The sample in the study consists of the price per kilogram (Kg) of red chili and shallots over 30 months (January 2021 - December 2023) in Provinsi Sumatera Utara. The research data used is secondary data. The price forecasting analysis method applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, assisted by EViews 14 and Microsoft Excel software. The results show that price forecasting using the ARIMA method indicates that the forecasted price of red chili in 2024 expected to the remain stable, ranging between Rp.39,000 - Rp.50,000 without significant fluctuations. Similarly, the forecasted price of shallots in 2024 is projected staying stable within the range of Rp.30,000 - Rp.32,000 throughout the year, without notable price volatility.