Analisis Volatilitas Dan Hubungan Harga Kedelai Impor Dan Lokal Serta Keterkaitan Dengan Keberlangsungan Industri Tahu Dan Tempe Di Kota Medan

Abstract

NURUL NABILA. Analysis of Volatility and Relationship of Imported and Local Soybean Prices and the Relationship with the Sustainability of the Tofu and Tempe Industry in Medan City (Under the guidance of DIANA CHALIL Supervisor commission I and R.B.MOH. IBRAHIM FATONI Supervisor commission II). Soybeans are a unique commodity strategy in the Indonesian farming system. Soybeans are included in the three main food commodities in Indonesia besides rice and corn. The role of soybeans is very important in the development of the Indonesian population. The objectives of this research are: to 1) analyze the volatility of local Indonesian soybean prices compared to world imported soybeans; 2) determine the role of soybean price volatility on market integration that occurs between the local Indonesian soybean market and the world imported soybean market; 3) analyze the sensitivity of tofu and tempeh craftsmen' s business income to the volatility of local and imported soybean prices. The data used is secondary time series data for the period January – December 2022 sourced from Uncomtrade, the North Sumatra Province Trade and Industry Service and secondary data with a total of 5 samples in Medan City District. This research uses the Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized ARCH (GARCH) methods using the Eviews 10 application. The analysis results show that local Indonesia soybean prices are more volatile than world soybean prices. And using Pearson Correlation Analysis to answer objective 2, namely the relationship between world imported soybean market prices and the local Indonesian soybean market. The results of this research show that there is a relationship between the world market price of imported soybeans and the local Indonesian soybean market. And using sensitivity analysis to answer objective 3 which shows that the income of tofu and tempe entrepreneurs is sensitive to the price volatility of imported soybeans and local Indonesian soybeans with a total cost increase of 10%, 20% and 30%.

Keywords: soybean, volatility, ARCH GARCH model,relationship, import, sensitivity analysis