Analisis Daya Saing, Index Spesialisasi Perdagangan, Purchasing Manager Index Ekspor Komoditi Sawit, Kakao dan Kopi Indonesia terhadap Volume Ekspor Indonesia di Pasar Internasional

Abstract

Agricultural commodities which have competitiveness in the international market are divided into three groups of commodity: plantation commodity, food plant commodity, and forestry commodity. Plantation commodity which has the biggest potential exports are coconuts, coffee, cocoa, and palm oil. The limitation of processing industry of palm oil, coffee, and cocoa has caused Indonesia to become raw material exporter to the exporting destination countries. Besides that, these three commodities also have problems in processing which are not in accordance with the international standard so that their competitiveness decreases. The objective of the research is to analyze a country's competitiveness such as RCA, ISP, Export Work, and PMI. The data consist of secondary data which are obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics, FOA website, and UNCOMTRADE website. The gathered data are analyzed by using qualitative analysis method to analyze Indonesian competitive superiority in coffee, cocoa, and palm oil commodities in the international market and also using quantitative analysis method to analyze the effect of the RCA of the three commodities, the ISP of destination countries, and the PMI of destination countries on their exporting volume in the international market in the period of 1992-2022. Quantitative analysis is done by using regression analysis of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL Bountes), using Microsoft Excel 2010 and E-views .12 software. The result of the research shows that, as a whole, the competitiveness of coffee, cocoa, and palm oil commodities to the destination countries is relatively good because RCA value is 1 except for cocoa commodity to the United States which has competitiveness value of < 1. The research results also show that the hypothesis is accepted for the RCA index variable for coffee exports to the United States, RCA coffee exports to Japan, RCA coffee exports to Malaysia, ISP to American countries, ISP to Malaysia, PMI to Japan, and PMI to Malaysia. As for the cocoa commodity, the hypothesis is accepted for the variables RCA cocoa to India, RCA cocoa to the US, RCA cocoa to China, ISP to the US, PMI to China and PMI to India. Meanwhile, for palm oil, the hypothesis is accepted for the RCA variable for palm oil to China, ISP to Pakistan, PMI to India and PMI to China.