Analisis Pertumbuhan Perdagangan Barang Intra Asean (Pendekatan PVAR Model)

Abstract

This research analyzes the long-term and short-term relationship of intra-ASEAN goods trade growth on Market Size, Import Tariffs, economic growth, Foreign Direct Investment, inflation, Dollar exchange rate in ASEAN Countries by using PVAR analysis testing method. This research uses data to 10 ASEAN countries from 2007 to 2022. The results of this research show that inflation, FDI, and exchange rate variables have a negative and significant effect on the long-term intra-ASEAN trade, but insignificant in the short-term. Economic Growth has a negative but insignificant effect on the long-term intra-ASEAN trade, and insignificant in the short term. Market Size and Tariff have a positive and significant effect on the long- term intra-ASEAN trade, but insignificant in the short term.