| dc.description.abstract | This study analyses the convergence and spatial linkages of economic growth in the 8 (eight) Lake Toba Regencies with a time period of 2010 - 2022. This research focuses on hypothesis testing that examines the influence of the determinants of regional economic growth by considering spatial aspects and also analyses the convergence of economic growth with respect to spatial aspects. The estimation method is carried out using the spatial panel data estimation method, namely the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Models (SDM) method. The estimation technique is the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. In the estimation of the research using the help of Stata and Geoda software. The results of this study are (1). Economic growth convergence does not occur in the eight districts of the Lake Toba region of North Sumatra Province (based on the concept of sigma convergence), but if based on the concept of absolute and conditional beta convergence, economic growth convergence occurs in the eight districts of the Lake Toba region of North Sumatra Province; (2) Convergence of regional economic growth in the eight districts of the Lake Toba region of North Sumatra Province is influenced by aspects of spatial linkage/dependence, and; (3). Determinants of economic growth in the eight districts of the Lake Toba region of North Sumatra Province consist of two types, namely (1) determinants of economic growth from the district itself, and (2) determinants of economic growth from other districts (there is spatial spillover); Determinants of economic growth from the district itself include physical capital investment, human capital investment, population, tourism sector contribution, road infrastructure, and tourism and cultural expenditures have a significant impact on economic growth in the eight districts of the Lake Toba region of North Sumatra Province, and Determinants of economic growth from other districts (there are positive spatial spillovers) on regional economic growth in the eight districts of the Lake Toba region of North Sumatra Province include real per capita income of other districts, physical capital investment of other districts, human capital investment of other districts, population growth of other districts, contribution of tourism sector of other districts, and road infrastructure of other districts. The recommendations of this study are first, the local governments of the eight districts of the Lake Toba Lake Region need to cooperate in advancing their respective regions so that the development of the Lake Toba region can be carried out in an integrated and sustainable manner; second, government policies to increase the share of PMTB to GDP and human capital investment; third, local governments in the eight districts of the Lake Toba Lake region must encourage a quality population growth rate; fourth, government policies to optimally develop the tourism sector; fifth, government policies to improve road infrastructure both in quality and quantity; and sixth, government policies to streamline tourism and cultural spending. | en_US |
