Analisis Forecasting Sentra Produksi Bawang Merah (Allium ascalonicum L.) di Provinisi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the most important economic sectors in the national economy. North Sumatra Province itself is one of the centers of shallot production in Indonesia, where Simalungun, Karo, Humbang Hsundutan, Dairi and Samosir regencies produce the most production in North Sumatra Province. Fluctuations in shallot production from year to year which tend to increase make forecasting shallot production quite important. This research aims to determine the production trend of shallot production centers in North Sumatra Province in 2014-2023 and to determine the projection of shallot production centers in North Sumatra Province in 2024-2028 with forecasting analysis with the Eviews 13 application. The area determination method used is purposive area sampling. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency and the Food Crops and Horticulture Service. The research results show that Simalungun district experienced a positive trend in 2014-2023, Karo district experienced a positive trend in 2014-2023, Humbang Hasundutan district experienced a negative trend, Dairi district experienced a positive trend and Samosir district experienced a positive trend. For 2024-2028, Simalungun district shows that forecasting of shallot production is experiencing a positive trend, Karo district is experiencing a positive trend, Humbang Hasundutan district is experiencing a positive trend, Dairi district and Samosir district are experiencing a negative trend. The results of the forecasting analysis show that shallot production in North Sumatra Province is sufficient to meet the need for shallots in the future, namely in 2024-2028.