Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi Arabika Sumatera Utara ke Lima Negara Tujuan Utama

Abstract

MUHAMMAD SADDAM Factors Influencing the Export of Arabica Coffee from North Sumatra to Five Main Destination Countries (Supervised by RAHMANTA) The export of Arabica coffee from North Sumatra to various destination countries has fluctuated over the past decade. During this period, five main countries have consistently been the primary importers in large quantities: the United States, Japan, Germany, Belgium, and Canada. However, in recent years, export demand from these countries has shown a declining trend. This study aims to examine the impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the destination countries, the exchange rate of the rupiah, the price of Arabica coffee in the international market, and the domestic price of Arabica coffee on the export volume of Arabica coffee from North Sumatra during the period 2018–2023. The research method applied is panel data regression analysis. The independent variables in this study include the GDP of the destination countries, the rupiah exchange rate, the international price of Arabica coffee, and the domestic price of Arabica coffee in North Sumatra, while the dependent variable analyzed is the export volume of Arabica coffee from the region. The estimation model used in the panel data regression analysis is the Fixed Effect Model with cross-section weight correction. The research results indicate that, simultaneously, the independent variables,GDP of the destination countries, rupiah exchange rate, international Arabica coffee price, and domestic Arabica coffee price, affect the export volume of Arabica coffee from North Sumatra at a 5 percent significance level. Partially, the GDP of the destination countries has a negative and significant effect on export volume, while the rupiah exchange rate and the international price of Arabica coffee show a positive and significant effect. Conversely, the domestic price of Arabica coffee has a negative impact on export volume, but its effect is not significant. Keywords: domestic price, international price, GDP, rupiah exchange rate, panel data.