Analisis Forecasting Produksi Ubi Kayu (Manihot Esculenta) di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the key sectors in improving the economy in Indonesia. North Sumatra Province is one of the agricultural centers, especially cassava production in Indonesia. This production is used for human food, both in fresh and processed form. The increase in population and the interests of community welfare are the reasons why people consume cassava and have resulted in a very large increase in demand for this commodity. Fluctuations in cassava production from year to year which tend to increase make forecasting cassava production very important. This research aims to determine the trend of cassava production in North Sumatra Province in 1994-2023 and to determine the projection of cassava production in North Sumatra Province in 2024-2033 with forecasting analysis using the Eviews program application. The area determination method used is purposive area sampling. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency and the North Sumatra Province Food Security Service. The research results show that in 1994-2023 in North Sumatra Province, cassava production experienced a positive trend. For the years 2024-2033 in North Sumatra Province, it shows that the forecasting for cassava production is experiencing a positive trend. The results of the forecasting analysis show that cassava production in North Sumatra Province can meet the food needs for cassava in the future, namely in 2024-2033.