Estimasi Pangsa Pasar dari Berbagai Merek Teh Celup dengan Menggunakan Rantai Markov di Kecamatan Medan Tuntungan

Abstract

Tea is a beverage derived from agricultural raw materials, with teabags as the most popular product in Indonesia, packaged in heat-resistant filter paper bags. Popular teabag brands in the market include Sariwangi, Teh Celup Sosro, Teh Poci, Tong Tji, and Bendera. With many brand choices, consumers may switch from the brand they currently use to another brand. This study aims to determine the level of consumer knowledge about teabag products, analyze consumer considerations in choosing and switching teabag brands, explain brand switching patterns by consumers, and estimate the market share of various teabag brands in the future. The analysis method used is descriptive with a Markov Chain probability approach. The results showed that the level of consumer knowledge about tea bags is in the knowing category. Consumer considerations in choosing a brand of tea bags are delicious flavors, while consumer considerations in switching brands because they want to experience new variations. The pattern of brand switching shows that more consumers switch to the Sariwangi, Teh Poci, and Tong Tji brands compared to the number of consumers who switch from these three brands. Conversely, the number of consumers switching from the Bendera brand is greater than the number of consumers switching to the brand. Meanwhile, the number of consumers of Sosro tea bags remained stable. The estimated market share of each teabag brand in period III is Sariwangi (55.68%), Sosro tea bags (12.30%), Teh Poci (7.04%), Tong Tji (11.80%), and Bendera (13.19%).