Determinan Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke India

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the determinant factors influencing the export volume of Indonesia’s Crude Palm Oil (CPO) to India. A quantitative approach is employed using secondary data obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture and the Trading Economics website, consisting of monthly time series data from January 2019 to December 2023. The analytical model used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, with Eviews 12 software utilized for estimation purposes. The results show that, in the long run, inflation in India has a positive and significant effect, while international CPO prices have a negative and significant effect on Indonesia’s CPO export volume to India. Meanwhile, the real exchange rate and domestic consumption of CPO for biodiesel production have no significant impact. In the short run, the first lag of exports and international soybean oil prices have a positive and significant effect on the CPO export volume. Overall, the independent variables in the model explain 54% of the variation in the dependent variable, while the remaining 46% is explained by other factors outside the model.