Pengaruh Ekspor CPO, Karet, Kopi, Kelapa, dan Kakao terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia has CPO, rubber, coffee, coconut, and cocoa as leadingcommodities exported to the international market. The export value of these leadingcommodities has fluctuated, tending to decline from January 2019 to December2023. Meanwhile, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves have increased during thatperiod. This study aims to analyze the contribution of exports from other sectorsbesides the export of leading commodities and the effect of CPO, rubber, coffee,coconut, and cocoa exports on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The data usedin this study is secondary time-series data from January 2019 to December 2023,totaling 60 months. The method used in this study is Error Correction Model (ECM)analysis. The results of the study indicate that in addition to the export of leadingcommodities, there are exports from other sectors that contribute to foreignexchange reserves. The long-term ECM analysis results show that the export valuevariables of CPO and rubber have a significant negative effect on Indonesia'sforeign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, in the short term, the export value variablesof CPO and cocoa have a significant negative effect on Indonesia's foreignexchange reserves, but the coconut export value variable has a significant positiveeffect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves.