Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Harga Substitusi dan Kebijakan Uni Eropa terhadap Volume Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke Negara Pengimpor Besar dan Kecil Uni Eropa

Abstract

Indonesia is the largest CPO exporter in the world. Indonesia's CPO export volume fluctuates every year to the European Union, including to its importing countries, where in 2017-2023 Indonesia's CPO export volume to the European Union tends to experience a significant decline. However, the development of Indonesia's CPO export volume to large and small importer countries in the European Union is still experiencing fluctuating developments. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of exchange rates, inflation, substitution prices and EU non-tariff policy dummies on the volume of Indonesian CPO exports to large and small EU importing countries simultaneously and partially using theories that form variables in the form of international trade theory, purchasing power parity theory, export demand and supply theory and the theory of international trade barriers. The method used in this research is descriptive and quantitative method with panel data regression analysis of Generalized Least Square (GLS) method. The data used is secondary data in the form of panel data with time series data from 1989-2023 and cross section data in the form of, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, France and Denmark. The results of panel data analysis show that the variables of exchange rate, inflation, substitution price, RED I and RED II nontariff policies of the European Union simultaneously have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian CPO exports. Partially, the exchange rate and inflation variables have a negative and significant effect on CPO exports, substitution prices have a positive and insignificant effect on the volume of CPO exports, the EU nontariff policy dummy variable in the form of RED I has a significant positive effect and RED II has a positive and insignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian CPO exports. Keywords: CPO, Generalized Least Square (GLS), Panel Data, Export Volume