Analisis Dinamika Perubahan Mangrove Tahun 2008-2023 di Pesisir Kabupaten Asahan, Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

This research analyzes the dynamics of mangrove cover changes in the coastal area of Asahan Regency, North Sumatra Province, during the period of 2008–2023. The objective of this study is to identify changes in mangrove land cover and evaluate the use of the Modular Mangrove Recognition Index (MMRI) in mangrove cover classification. Land cover analysis used Landsat 5 TM imagery for the year 2008 and Landsat 8 OLI from 2014 to 2023. The imagery was classified using the Random Forest supervised classification method. The changes observed show a complex trend due to the interaction between human activities and natural factors. Mangrove cover increased by 963.24 ha from 2008 to 2014 and then decreased by 789.4 ha from 2014 to 2023, resulting in an overall increase of 173.84 ha in mangrove area from 2008 to 2023. The dynamics of land cover changes include Mangrove Deforestation of 980.26 ha, Mangrove Gain 1,154.1 ha, Stable Mangrove 4,142.36 ha, and Stable Non-Mangrove 38,672.5 ha; these results are important for sustainable coastal area planning and management. The MMRI analysis shows that the MMRI value in 2008 was -0.49 ± 0.11, in 2014 it was -0.44 ± 0.1, in 2018 it was -0.46 ± 0.09, and in 2023 it was -0.50 ± 0.08.