Analisis Faktor – Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Harga Beras di Indonesia

Abstract

Rice is the main food commodity in Indonesia that has a strategic role in the economy and national food security. This study aims to analyze the factors that affect rice prices in Indonesia using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The data used includes rice import volume, rice production, rice consumption, and inflation during the period 1993 to 2023. The ECM method was chosen because of its ability to analyze the short-term and long-term relationships between the variables studied. The results show that in the short term, the volume of rice imports and rice production does not have a significant effect on rice prices, while rice consumption has a positive effect although it is not significant. In contrast, in the long term, rice production and consumption have a positive and significant effect on rice prices, suggesting that increased domestic production and consumption can promote price stability. Meanwhile, the volume of rice imports and inflation do not show a significant influence on rice prices in the long term. Rice prices in Indonesia are more influenced by domestic factors, especially production and consumption, than by external factors such as inflation and import policies.