Optimalisasi Pengelolaan Persediaan Bahan Baku Cabai Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus: Rumah Produksi Bersama)

Abstract

The chili processing industry, particularly chili paste production, faces high risks due to the seasonal uncertainty of raw material supply. In Lubuk Cuik Village, harvest fluctuations hinder production continuity and cause losses for the Joint Production House. Based on supply chain management and inventory control theories, this study applies the Monte Carlo Simulation method to model supply risks and evaluate three scenarios: the initial condition, the addition of cold storage, and price contracts with farmers. The simulation was conducted over 1.000 iterations using production requirements and historical harvest data. Results show that the no-intervention scenario leads to an average shortage of 7.023 kg/month; the cold storage scenario reduces the shortage to 4.563 kg but incurs high storage costs; while the price contract scenario results in the lowest shortage of 910 kg/month and is the most cost-efficient. Monte Carlo Simulation proves effective in supporting risk-based decision-making, and the price contract scenario is recommended as the optimal solution to ensure supply stability in the chili processing industry.