Analisis Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Rasio Gini, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di 10 Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

The poverty rate is still one of the main problems in Indonesia, including in North Sumatra Province. A number of districts/municipalities in this region have consistently recorded relatively high poverty rates over the past ten years. In the context of the first point of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), namely “No Poverty”, comprehensive efforts are needed to identify the determinants of poverty in areas with high levels of socio-economic vulnerability. Non-inclusive economic growth, income inequality, and low human development quality are crucial issues that are thought to contribute to the high poverty rate. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the effect of economic growth, the Gini ratio, and the Human Development Index (HDI) on poverty rates in 10 regencies/municipalities in North Sumatra Province during the period 2014-2023. This type of research is quantitative research using secondary data obtained from the publication of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analysis technique used in this study is panel data regression. with the Random Effect Model (REM) as the selected model. The results show that partially, the economic growth variable has a positive but insignificant effect on the poverty rate, as does the Gini ratio. In contrast, HDI has a negative and significant effect on the poverty rate. Simultaneously, the three variables have a significant effect on the poverty rate in the 10 districts/cities in North Sumatra Province in 2014-2023. These findings confirm the importance of improving the quality of human development and equitable distribution of development outcomes as key strategies to effectively reduce poverty.