Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Harga Produsen dan Ramalan Harga Produsen Cabai Merah Keriting di Kabupaten Dairi

Abstract

Curly red chili is one leading horticultural commodity cultivated in Dairi Regency. Fluctuations in producer prices at the farmer level have been considerable, which leads to changes in both supply and demand in the market. These fluctuations pose a serious challenge for farmers in Dairi Regency, as falling prices can result in significant financial losses. This study aims to analyze the factors influence the producer price of curly red chili in Dairi Regency and to forecast producer price for a 12-month period from July 2024 to June 2025. The analytical methods used in this study are the Vector Autoregression/Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VECM) and the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The study uses secondary time series data from January 2019 to June 2024. The results show that the consumer price of curly red chili one month prior, the consumer price of bird’s eye chili (cabe rawit) one month prior, and the consumer price of bird’s eye chili two months prior significantly affect the producer price of curly red chili in Dairi Regency. The producer price of curly red chili, along with the consumer prices of curly red chili, bird’s eye chili, and shallots, experienced price shocks from the first to the tenth month; prices then began to stabilize. Among the variables, the consumer price of bird’s eye chili had the greatest influence on the producer price of curly red chili in Dairi Regency. The best-performing ARIMA model identified was (0,1,2), with the forecast showing a positive trend in producer prices over the next 12 months. Prices are expected to increase from July 2024 to June 2025, with an average monthly producer price of approximately IDR 22,800