Usulan Penerapan Metode Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, And Replenishment (CPFR) Untuk Mengurangi Bullwhip Effect Pada UMKM Sirup Markisa Noerlen

Abstract

The Noerlen Passion Fruit Syrup MSME frequently experiences inventory imbalances, resulting in both stockouts and overstock situations. This condition is caused by fluctuating demand from resellers that is not aligned with the production volume, thereby triggering the bullwhip effect in the supply chain. This study aims to reduce the bullwhip effect and improve demand planning accuracy through the implementation of the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) method. The research is conducted using supply and demand data from resellers throughout the year 2024. The forecasting methods employed include linear trend, moving average, and winters method, with the best method selected based on the lowest error values (MAPE, MAD, MSD). The results show that the application of CPFR successfully reduced the bullwhip effect value from 1.14 to 0.84, and also assisted in determining more accurate safety stock and reorder point levels. Thus, CPFR has proven effective in enhancing supply chaincoordination and reducing the risk of stockouts and overstocking in the Noerlen Passion Fruit Syrup MSME.