Analisis Dinamika Perubahan Tutupan Mangrove di Kabupaten Deli Serdang Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2004-2023

Abstract

Mangrove forests play an essential role as natural coastal protectors, habitats for marine organisms, and carbon sinks. However, in recent decades, mangrove areas have experienced deforestation due to land-use change and natural factors. This study aims to analyze changes in mangrove land cover in Deli Serdang Regency, North Sumatra, during the period 2004–2023. The analysis used Landsat satellite imagery and a supervised classification method employing the Random Forest algorithm on the Google Earth Engine platform. The results show that land conversion to aquaculture ponds, rice fields, settlements, and oil palm plantations has significantly contributed to the decline in mangrove area. The largest loss occurred during the 2004–2008 period, amounting to 4,162.90 hectares. A limited recovery was observed in 2013, with an increase of 2,124.32 hectares, followed by further declines in 2018 and 2023, amounting to 359.53 hectares and 333.15 hectares, respectively. These findings indicate the urgent need for planned conservation and restoration efforts to maintain the sustainability of mangrove ecosystems in the region.