Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Kota Medan Tahun 2014-2024 dan Prediksi Tahun 2034

Abstract

The increasing population density has made urban areas more crowded, leading to a rising demand for housing. Limited land availability drives changes in land use and worsens environmental conditions, particularly in Medan City, which has the largest population in North Sumatra Province, accounting for about 16% of the province's total population. This study aims to analyze land cover changes in Medan City in 2014, 2019, and 2024, as well as predict land cover conditions in 2034, while identifying the key priority factors influencing this prediction. Landsat 8 imagery was processed using Google Earth Engine with a supervised classification method. The 2034 land cover prediction was conducted using the Artificial Neural Network–Markov Chain (ANN–Markov Chain) method, while priority factors were determined through interviews with key informants and were analyzed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The results showed that settlement areas expanded significantly from 2014 to 2024, reaching 16,797.33 ha (60.18%) in 2024. The 2034 projection indicated a decline in water bodies to 385.29 ha (1.38%) and open land to 367.2 ha (1.32%). Infrastructure emerged as the main criterion in land cover prediction with a weight of 0.651, while distance from roads was the highest-weighted alternative at 0.374. An inconsistency ratio of 0.05 confirmed that the AHP analysis results were consistent.