Analisis Perdagangan Bilateral dalam Mendorong Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Studi Kasus: Indonesia-Jepang

Abstract

International trade plays a crucial role in economic growth, especially for developing countries such as Indonesia. One of the strategic efforts undertaken is through bilateral agreements, such as the Indonesia–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA), which was signed in 2007 and took effect in 2008. Although expected to strengthen export performance and economic relations between the two countries, the impact of this agreement on Indonesia's economic growth has not been fully effective. This study aims to analyze the influence of Indonesia’s net exports to Japan, the rupiah–yen exchange rate, and the implementation of IJEPA on Indonesia’s economic growth in both the long run and short run. The study uses annual time series data from 1994 to 2023 and applies the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that net exports have a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth in the long run, while in the short run, the effect is positive and significant. The rupiah–yen exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in both the long and short term, indicating the sensitivity of growth to exchange rate fluctuations. And the implementation of IJEPA shows a positive but insignificant effect in both time frames, reflecting that the policy impact has not been fully realized.