Pengaruh Pengangguran, Urbanisasi, dan Inflasi terhadap Disparitas Pendapatan di Negara ASEAN

Abstract

Income disparity is a condition when the distribution of income among community groups is unequal, which if left unchecked can trigger various social problems such as increasing poverty rates, welfare gaps, and potential social conflicts. This study aims to identify and analyze the economic factors that influence income disparity in the ASEAN region, specifically in six countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia during the period 1994 to 2023. The approach used is a quantitative method with the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique to handle potential endogeneity in dynamic panel data models. The estimation process is carried out in stages, starting from the First Difference GMM (FD-GMM) as the initial model, which is then compared with the System GMM (SYS-GMM) approach based on the results of the unbiased test. The final model chosen is SYS-GMM, because it shows the most valid and consistent estimation results based on the Sargan Test, ArellanoBond Test, and Unbiased Test between methods. The data used are secondary data obtained from official and verified sources such as the World Bank, World Inequality Database and WorldData.info. The estimation results show that unemployment has a positive and significant effect on income disparity, while inflation has a negative and significant effect. And urbanization has a negative but insignificant effect.