Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, Dan Inflasi Terhadap Ekspor Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation on Indonesia’s exports during the period from 1994 to 2023. Exports play a vital role in the national economy as a source of foreign exchange, a driver of economic growth, and an indicator of global competitiveness. The three macroeconomic variables examined in this research hold strategic importance in determining export performance. The exchange rate affects the international price of exported goods; interest rates are related to financing costs and capital flows; while inflation impacts production costs and price competitiveness, this research employs a quantitative approach using multiple linear regression analysis with time series data obtained from official institutions such as the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the World Bank. Classical assumption tests were conducted to ensure the validity of the regression model, followed by t-tests and F-tests to assess partial and simultaneous effects. The results show that partially, the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on Indonesia’s exports, interest rates have a negative but insignificant effect, and inflation has a negative and significant effect. Simultaneously, the three variables significantly influence Indonesia's export performance. These findings emphasize the importance of macroeconomic stability as a foundation for strategic policy-making to boost national export performance.