Pemodelan Kontribusi Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dan Angka Putus Sekolah terhadap Angka Kemiskinan serta Dampaknya pada Proporsi Pekerja Anak di Indonesia Menggunakan Analisis Jalur

Abstract

Background: Children’s involvement in labor poses a risk to human capital development, potentially turning Indonesia’s demographic bonus into a demographic burden. Objective: This study aims to model the influence of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and school dropout rates on the proportion of child labor in Indonesia, with poverty as a mediating variable. Method: Path analysis is employed to trace the direct and indirect effects among fertility, school dropout, poverty, and the proportion of child labor. This model is expected to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the causal relationships among these variables. Results: Simultaneously, TFR, school dropout rates, and poverty are found to significantly affect the proportion of child labor. However, individually, only TFR has a statistically significant effect, with a total contribution of 30.2%. Moreover, both TFR and school dropout rates significantly influence poverty, with total contributions of 7.9% and 52.8%, respectively. Conclusion: The constructed model explains 47.6% of the variation in the endogenous variable. These findings highlight the importance of targeting the identified exogenous variables in efforts to address the issue of child labor.