Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Karet RSS-1 Produk PTPN IV Regional I

Abstract

The export of RSS-1 rubber produced by PTPN IV Regional I has experienced significant fluctuations over the past five years. The company contributes more than 20 percent to the national export volume; however, in recent years, global demand for RSS-1 rubber exports has declined. This study aims to analyze the influence of production volume, export price, domestic price, domestic sales volume of RSS-1 from PTPN IV Regional I, and the Rupiah to USD exchange rate on the export volume of Ribbed Smoked Sheet-I (RSS-1) rubber produced by PTPN IV Regional I during the period of January 2019 to December 2023. The research method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The independent variables in this study include production volume, export price, domestic price, domestic sales volume of RSS-1 rubber from PTPN IV Regional I, and the Rupiah to USD exchange rate, while the dependent variable is the export volume of RSS-1 rubber produced by PTPN IV Regional I. The VECM method uses 60 months of time series data that is stationary at the first difference level with a significance level of 5 percent. The results show that in the short term, the production volume variable has a significantly positive effect on export volume, while the export volume itself, export price, and domestic sales volume have a significantly negative effect. The domestic price and the Rupiah to USD exchange rate variables do not show a significant effect on the export volume of RSS-1 rubber produced by PTPN IV Regional I in the short term. In the long term, the production volume and domestic price variables show a significantly negative effect on the export volume of RSS-1 rubber, while the export price and domestic sales volume variables have a significantly positive effect. The Rupiah to USD exchange rate variable does not show a significant effect on the export volume of RSS-1 in the long term.