Analisis dan Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Kawasan DAS Deli Hulu

Abstract

Human needs for land always increase along with the increasing population growth. This will certainly affect the increasingly high land cover changes and can have an impact on land and environmental conversion, especially in the River Basin Area. One of the watersheds that has the potential to be affected is the Deli Watershed, especially the Deli Hulu Watershed area. The Deli Hulu Watershed is administratively located in Deli Serdang Regency and Karo Regency which have large populations so that this triggers changes in land cover. This study aims to analyze changes in land cover in the Deli Hulu Watershed area in 2013, 2018, 2023 and will predict land cover in 2033. This study uses 6 driving factors, namely distance from roads, distance from rivers, distance from settlements, population density, slope and altitude. This study uses Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain modeling to predict land cover changes in 2033. The results of the study show that the predicted land cover in 2033 in the Deli Hulu Watershed is Dryland Forest 3,318 ha (17.16%), Plantations 2,800 ha (14.48%), Settlements 959 ha (4.96%), Dryland Agriculture 11,311 ha (58.49%), Rice Fields 873 ha (4.51%), and Open Land 78 ha (0.40%).