Peramalan Hasil Produksi dan Luas Panen Jagung di Kabupaten Dairi Tahun 2025 Dengan Metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)

Abstract

The demand for dry pipilan corn with a moisture content of 14% (JPK-KA14%) in North Sumatra in 2024 is estimated at 1,492,900 tons with a monthly requirement of around 124,408 tons. Most of the corn production, about 80%, is absorbed for the animal feed industry, while the rest is used for corn flour and other necessities. The purpose of this study is to obtain an accurate forecasting model from corn production and harvest area data in Dairi Regency to find out whether the corn needs in the province are met. This study uses the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method on secondary data obtained from BPS North Sumatra. The results of the analysis resulted in the total corn production in Dairi Regency being 303,018 tons with an area of 49,186.97 hectares. These results reflect Dairi Regency as an area that has excellent and consistent corn production potential in the future.