Penerapan Analisis Jalur Terhadap Faktor Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pembangunan Manusia di Kabupaten Asahan Thun 2010-2024

Abstract

Path analysis is a statistical method used to measure both direct and indirect effects among variables. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the Human Development Index (HDI) and its impact on poverty levels in Asahan Regency. The data used in this study are secondary data from BPS (Central Statistics Agency) for the period 2010–2024. The independent variables include Expected Years of Schooling (X₁), Life Expectancy (X₂), and Expenditure per Capita (X₃), with HDI (Z) as the intervening variable and Poverty Rate (Y) as the dependent variable. The model consists of two structural equations. The first equation shows that HDI is significantly influenced by the three independent variables :Z= 1.733X₁ + 0.505X₂ + 0.001X₃ + ε₁. The second equation indicates that poverty is negatively affected by HDI: Y = -0.380Z + ε₂. The results reveal that Expected Years of Schooling is the most dominant factor influencing HDI, and HDI plays a key role in reducing poverty. In addition to direct effects, the independent variables also have indirect effects on poverty through HDI. These findings suggest that improving education, health, and purchasing power can significantly support human development and poverty reduction.