PENGAPLIKASIAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA

Abstract

Unemployment is one of the main problems in economic development, especially in North Sumatra Province, which shows fluctuations in unemployment rates from year to year. This study aims to forecast the open unemployment rate in North Sumatra using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) forecasting method. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of North Sumatra for the period 2000–2024. Based on the ARIMA testing process, the best model obtained is ARIMA (1,2,0), with a MAPE value of 23.5%, which falls into the good category according to MAPE interpretation. The prediction results show a decreasing trend in the open unemployment rate in North Sumatra Province, reaching 0.89% in the year 2030.