Analisis Risiko Pendapatan Usahatani Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit Penerima Kredit Usaha Rakyat di Lembaga Keuangan Formal (Studi Kasus Pada Bank X Cabang USU Medan)

Abstract

Oil palm plantation farming has access to government capital through the Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) program. Risk is a crucial issue that needs attention in the context of using credit to avoid negative impacts on both financial institutions and the sustainability of farming businesses receiving KUR. This research aims to analyze the income risk of oil palm plantation farming for KUR recipients at Bank X USU Branch Medan. Data was obtained from Bank X USU Branch Medan by conducting a census of 113 debtors involved in oil palm plantation farming. The research employed descriptive quantitative methods, utilizing the Value At Risk (VaR) and Coefficient of Variation (CV) methods. The research results indicate a potential maximum increase in revenue and a maximum decrease in costs. Furthermore, the risk levels for both revenue and costs are categorized as low, evidenced by a coefficient of variation less than 0.5. Analysis of income risk reveals that if revenue increases and costs decrease by their respective VaR values, there is a potential for income growth. If revenue and costs fluctuate by their coefficient of variation values, an optimistic scenario suggests an increase in debtor income. Conversely, a pessimistic scenario could lead to a decrease in income, though not to the extent of total income loss.