Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi di Negara-Negara ASEAN

Abstract

The global economic slowdown during periods of turbulence, triggered by the tightening of monetary and fiscal policies, has impacted output and price stability in ASEAN countries. This study adopts a quantitative approach using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis method. The findings reveal that:(1) in the short term, changes in the exchange rate from the previous period have a positive but insignificant effect on inflation, whereas in the long term, they have a negative and significant effect; (2) in the short term, changes in the unemployment rate from the previous period have a positive and significant effect, while in the long term, the effect is negative and insignificant; (3) in the short term, changes in the money supply (M2) from the previous period have a negative and insignificant effect, whereas in the long term, the effect is positive but still insignificant,· and (4) in the short term, changes in petroleum subsidies have a negative and insignificant effect, while in the long term, they have a negative and significant effect on inflation.