Penerapan Model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dalam Peramalan Harga Perak Indonesia

Abstract

In the era of globalization, silver prices are consistently rising, primarily due to the increasing demand from the automotive industry. Additionally, silver is highly sought after by the Indonesian populace for jewelry making. This topic is very important to discuss for investors, the government, and those starting silver trading businesses. The price of silver is currently at Rp. 17,367 per gram (April 30, 2025). Over time, silver prices have continuously increased. The rising silver prices will be analyzed using forecasting techniques with the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model. In this study, the ARIMA model used is ARIMA (13, 1, 10). By employing this ARIMA (13, 1, 10) model, the study forecasts a final price of Rp. 19,620.28 on August 1, 2025, with a MAPE of 1.004% and a MAE of 169.877, indicating that the ARIMA (13, 1, 10) model is very effective for forecasting silver prices in Indonesia. ARIMA (13. 1. 10) shows that the trend of Silver Prices is rising, providing an insight to investors who want to invest in precious metals Silver.