Analisis Forecasting Harga Minyak Goreng di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Cooking oil is one of the most widely consumed food commodities in Indonesia; however, its price continues to rise and fluctuate, including in North Sumatra Province. This study aims to analyze the price trend of bulk and packaged cooking oil in North Sumatra Province from July 2018 to March 2025, and to forecast cooking oil prices for the period from April 2025 to March 2027. The data used consists of monthly cooking oil prices in North Sumatra from July 2018 to March 2025. The data is divided into two sets: training data (July 2018 – November 2023) and testing data (December 2023 – March 2025). The data is analyzed using Microsoft Excel to identify trend patterns and EViews for the ARIMA forecasting method. The results show that the best model for forecasting bulk cooking oil prices is ARIMA (1,1,6) with a MAPE value of 9.27%, while the best model for packaged cooking oil is ARIMA (5,1,2) with a MAPE value of 4.21%. The forecast results indicate an upward price trend.