Implementasi Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dalam Prakiraan Nilai Ekspor Di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Export value is an important indicator in the economy because it has a direct impact on economic growth, trade balance stability, and international competitiveness. Export value estimates help the government and business actors develop adaptive, efficient, and sustainable trade strategies. This study aims to determine the export value of North Sumatra in 2024 based on 2016-2023 data using the ARIMA method. Based on the results of the analysis of North Sumatra Export Value data for 2016-2023, the best model used for forecasting is the ARIMA (0,1,1) model. With an MA (1) parameter of 0.587. MAPE obtained from the calculation of the ARIMA model with Ordinary Least Square as a parameter estimate of 22,33% indicates a reasonable level of error in the forecast.