Pengaruh Ekspor-Impor dan Neraca Pembayaran terhadap Keseimbangan Anggaran Negara Indonesia Tahun 1993-2022

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and determine the effect of the trade balance and balance of payments on the surplus/deficit of Indonesia’s fiscal balance in the long and short term during the 1993-2022 period. The study employs a quantitative method with secondary time series data analysis. The data used are annual time series secondary data from 1993-2022, obtained from credible official sources such as the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Finance. The analysis was conducted using Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) to identify long-term and short-term relationships between the studied variables. Results indicate that the trade balance does not have a significant effect on Indonesia’s state budget, either in the long or short term. Conversely, the balance of payments has a positive and significant effect at the 5% confidence level on the state budget, both in the long and short term. Additionally, control variables such as inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth also show a positive and significant impact on the state budget in both the long and short term. These findings confirm that the balance of payments, inflation, and GDP growth affect Indonesia’s fiscal balance, while the trade balance does not have a significant impact.