Peramalan Beban Jangka Panjang Pada Akhir Tahun Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linear

Abstract

This study focuses on long-term electricity load forecasting at the end of the year using the linear regression method, applied to the Glugur Substation in Medan. Historical load data from 2021 to 2024 was used as the foundation to forecast electrical loads through the end of 2026. The forecasting process models the relationship between the progression of time and peak load/energy usage using a linear regression approach. The forecasting results demonstrate a consistent and stable upward trend in load demand. Model accuracy was evaluated using MAPE, R², MAE, and RMSE metrics. The lowest MAPE value of 1.37% was achieved at the Selayang Substation, while the Glugur Substation yielded a MAPE of 2.43%, indicating good accuracy for long-term forecasting. This research contributes to enhancing the reliability and efficiency of power distribution system planning.