Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Komoditi Kakao Indonesia ke India

Abstract

The volume of Indonesian cocoa production has increased on average in the last 20 years. However, the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports has experienced a fairly complex fluctuating trend. This study aims: 1) Analyzing the development of the volume of Indonesian cocoa commodity exports to India for the period 1992-2024; 2) Analyzing the effect of the value of Indonesian cocoa exports to India, the population of India, India's GDP and the amount of Indonesian cocoa production on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports to India for the period 1992-2024. This study uses descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis methods, the descriptive method is used to interpret data and the quantitative method is used to collect, analyze, and interpret quantitative data. The quantitative method used is the small squares method or the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method of multiple linear regression models with the SPSS tool. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method or ordinary least squares regression is a technique used to estimate the coefficients of linear regression equations. From the results of the study, the lowest export volume was recorded in 2022, about 26.3 tons, while the highest export volume occurred in 2014, which was 7790.1 tons, this fluctuation shows that the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports to India is not only influenced by one single factor, but also the result of the interaction of various economic and policy variables. From the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method with a multiple linear regression analysis model, the results show that the value of cocoa exports to India has a positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports to India, the population of India has a positive but it is not significant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports to India. India's GDP has a negative and in unsignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports to India and the amount of Indonesian cocoa production has a negative and unsignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports to India.