Analisis Determinan Kesenjangan Regional dalam Penyerapan Investasi dalam Negeri di Pulau Sumatera

Abstract

Domestic Investment (PMDN) is one of the strategic factors in promoting regional economic growth. However, disparities in investment absorption across Sumatra Island reveal significant gaps between provinces. Provinces with better infrastructure, higher labor productivity, and stronger regional competitiveness tend to attract more investors, while other provinces lag behind in investment realization. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the disparity in Domestic Investment (PMDN) absorption across ten provinces in Sumatra Island during the period 2019–2023. The methods used include quadrant analysis to map the position of each province based on investment performance and panel regression using the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach to examine the influence of Regional Minimum Wage (UMR), National Road Conditions (KJN), Regional Competitiveness Index (IDSD), and Labor Productivity (PTK) on PMDN. The quadrant analysis results show that Riau Province consistently occupies a superior position, while provinces such as Bengkulu and West Sumatra tend to lag in investment absorption. The panel regression results indicate that UMR has a positive and significant effect on PMDN. National Road Conditions and Labor Productivity have positive but statistically insignificant effects, while the Regional Competitiveness Index has a negative and insignificant effect. These findings suggest that only UMR plays a significant role in driving domestic investment, while the other variables have not yet made a substantial contribution to reducing investment disparities in Sumatra.