Analisis Pengaruh PDB Perkapita, Inflasi, Kurs, dan Suku Bunga terhadap Ekspor Sumatera Utara ke 5 Negara Tujuan

Abstract

As one of the provinces in Indonesia, North Sumatra has a major contribution to national exports, where exports play a significant role in increasing national income and creating jobs. This study aims to analyze the effect of per capita income, inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates on North Sumatra's exports to 5 destination countries, namely China, Japan, the United States, India, and Malaysia, during the period 2011-2021. The data used is secondary panel data obtained from the World Bank and the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). The dependent variable in this study is exports. Meanwhile, the independent variables consist of per capita gdp, inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. The analysis method used is panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach processed using E-Views 12 software. The results show that the per capita income variable has a positive but insignificant effect on exports, indicating that per capita income does not significantly increase exports. In contrast, inflation and interest rates have a negative and insignificant effect, indicating that an increase in these two variables tends to reduce export activities. The exchange rate variable shows a negative but statistically significant effect. Simultaneously, these macroeconomic variables have a significant effect on exports. This finding emphasizes the importance of considering the overall economic conditions of trading partner countries in regional export strategies, especially North Sumatra.