Analisis Pengaruh Determinan Makro Ekonomi terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan Negara Upper Middle Income Anggota G20

Abstract

Income inequality is one of the main challenges in achieving inclusive and sustainable economic development. This issue is of particular concern in upper middle-income countries that are members of the G20, given the high potential for inequality to hinder long-term economic growth and social stability. This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic determinants on the level of income inequality in eight G20 member countries within this category, namely Argentina, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and Russia, during the period 2011–2022. The data used in this study are secondary panel data obtained from credible sources, such as the World Bank, UNU-WIDER, and UNDP. The dependent variable is the Gini Index, which serves as an indicator of income inequality. The independent variables include economic growth, urbanization rate, unemployment rate, government expenditure, population growth, and the Human Development Index (HDI). The analysis employs panel data regression using the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach, processed with the E-Views 13 software. The results show that urbanization has a negative and significant effect on income inequality, indicating that increasing urbanization can contribute to reducing inequality. On the other hand, unemployment and government expenditure have a positive and significant effect, suggesting that increases in these variables tend to widen the income gap. Meanwhile, economic growth, population growth, and HDI show a positive but statistically insignificant effect. Overall, the macroeconomic variables examined in this study have a significant simultaneous impact on income inequality. These findings highlight the importance of formulating integrated, data-driven, and adaptive macroeconomic policies to address income inequality in developing countries.