Analisis Kinerja Nikel dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Industri Pengolahan Logam Dasar di Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries with significant mineral and energy resources, one of which is nickel. The large potential of nickel makes Indonesia a country with a comparative advantage in the availability of nickel natural resources. This will be an opportunity for Indonesia to increase revenue from its basic metal processing industry. This study aims to analyze the performance of nickel and exchange rates that influence the basic metal processing industry in Indonesia. The variables influencing this are Indonesia's nickel export volume, Indonesia's nickel production volume, the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the USD, and global nickel prices. The data used in this study are time series data from 1993 to 2023 and are quantitative in nature. The analytical methods employed are multiple linear regression, which aims to assess the impact of independent variables on the dependent variable, and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA), which seeks to determine whether the relationship between independent and dependent variables is strengthened or weakened. The results of the study indicate that the variable of Indonesia's nickel export volume has a significant and negative effect, the variables of Indonesia's nickel production volume and the rupiah exchange rate have a significant and positive effect, and the variable of global nickel futures prices does not have a significant and positive effect on Indonesia's basic metal processing industry GDP. Meanwhile, the results of the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) test show that the Indonesian nickel export volume variable is not significantly strengthened by the global nickel price variable, the Indonesian nickel production volume variable is significantly weakened by the global nickel price, and the rupiah exchange rate against the USD variable is significantly strengthened by the global nickel price variable.