Analisis Perubahan Tutupan Lahan dan Prediksinya pada Beberapa Kecamatan di Kabupaten Serdang Bedagai

Abstract

Land cover change was caused by one of the factors, namely population growth and regional development. Serdang Bedagai Regency was one of the areas that experienced rapid change, mainly due to land conversion for settlements, so an in-depth study was needed to determine the direction of land cover change in the future using geographic information systems. This study aimed to analyze land cover changes in several districts of Serdang Bedagai Regency in 2014, 2019, and 2024, to predict land cover until 2034, and to determine the largest area of land cover change in Serdang Bedagai Regency using the Analytical Hierarchy Process.The methods used were land cover analysis with Google Earth Engine, land cover modeling with Cellular Automata Markov Chain, and AHP analysis using Expert Choice. The results of the study showed that settlement and mangrove land cover increased from 2014 to 2024. Meanwhile, water bodies did not experience any change, and rice field cover drastically decreased in 2019 but increased again in 2024. The prediction accuracy of land cover in 2024 had an AUC value of 0.779. The land cover prediction results for 2034 showed the largest area in plantations, covering 63.78%. The results of determining the largest area of land cover change in Serdang Bedagai Regency showed that the coastal area ranked first with a value of 0.295, while the riverbank area ranked last with a value of 0.130. This study was expected to provide accurate information regarding the direction of land cover change in the future, as well as to serve as a consideration for the local government in formulating sustainable and data-based policies.